The artificial intelligence boom has dominated headlines this year, but much of the attention has centered on a small handful of mega-cap tech names. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have carried a disproportionate share of market gains. That concentration has left many investors wondering where the next wave of AI-driven upside may come from, especially as concerns grow about overstretched valuations and a potential cooling in the infrastructure layer of the AI trade.
A new analysis from Goldman Sachs argues that the real opportunity going forward may come from an entirely different group: companies outside the usual AI suspects that are positioned to use artificial intelligence to cut costs, raise productivity, and amplify earnings.
According to Goldman, these firms represent an overlooked but potentially powerful component of the next phase of the AI trade. The bank says many of them sit in traditional sectors like finance, real estate, and old-line business services, where labor expenses are high and automation can rapidly flow through to profitability.
Why the Market Is Searching for New AI Winners
The broader market backdrop has turned choppy. Several major indexes, including the Dow and the S&P 500, have logged multiple consecutive down days. Tech leaders in the Nasdaq Composite have also deteriorated, hinting at investor fatigue around the AI-heavy names that have powered the market for more than a year.
At the same time, the third-quarter earnings season demonstrated that corporate spending on AI is increasing faster than expected. Companies are accelerating their investments in automation, AI agents, data platforms, and digital transformations.
Yet this rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has also raised questions about stress in the ecosystem. Some investors fear that training-related spending may have grown too hot too fast.
That tension has created what Goldman Sachs calls a perfect opening for the next layer of beneficiaries.
Goldman’s Screen for “AI Productivity Beneficiaries”
Goldman analyst Ryan Hammond outlined the bank’s thinking in a new note to clients. He wrote that the ongoing adoption of AI inside corporations, combined with worries about the infrastructure part of the trade, has shifted investor attention toward companies that can boost earnings through productivity gains.
Hammond said, “The combination of continued corporate AI adoption and growing concerns about the AI infrastructure complex has increased recent investor focus on the next beneficiaries of the ever expanding AI trade.” He also noted that this earnings season pushed Wall Street’s AI capital spending forecasts even higher.
To identify these opportunities, Goldman built a screen to find companies with the highest potential for AI to lower labor costs while raising profitability. Key criteria included:
- Firms in the top 25 percent of the Russell 1000 with the largest share of wage costs exposed to possible
- AI automation
- Businesses with the highest labor costs as a percentage of sales
- Companies that explicitly referenced AI as a tool for efficiency or productivity on recent earnings calls
This produced a basket of stocks that Goldman believes is positioned for outsized earnings tailwinds as AI adoption accelerates.
Major names in the screen include Bank of America, Zillow Group, KeyCorp, PNC Financial Services, and Affirm.
How These “Hidden AI Winners” Have Performed
Goldman says these companies have already seen meaningful gains, though their earnings outlook suggests they may still be undervalued. Hammond noted that, “Our screen of AI Productivity Beneficiaries has returned 16 percent since December 2023, compared with 23 percent for the equal weight S&P 500 … however, the stocks have nonetheless lagged the recent trajectory of their earnings, suggesting attractive risk reward for investors seeking to expand their exposure to AI beyond the infrastructure layer.”
For investors, that gap between performance and earnings trajectory is the opportunity.
Why Financials Could See Outsized Earnings Growth
The financial sector appears particularly well positioned for the next stage of the AI trade. Banks have enormous labor footprints, high regulatory demands, and millions of customer interactions that can be streamlined with automation and AI assistants.
Goldman’s analysis shows that several financial institutions have more than one third of their wage costs exposed to potential AI-driven automation. These include KeyCorp, PNC Financial, Bank of America, and Affirm. While financial stocks are up more than 6 percent this year, they still lag major parts of the market.
Bank of America stands out. The stock is up 18 percent year to date, and Goldman estimates its earnings per share could climb another 22 percent as the firm integrates more AI into its operations. The company has already committed 4 billion dollars toward new technologies, including AI, with the goal of boosting banker productivity and generating new revenue. At a recent Reuters event, the bank’s chief technology and information officer said Bank of America’s 18,000 developers have been using AI agents for a full year and have seen major gains in efficiency, especially around repetitive tasks.
IBM and Zillow: Two Non-Bank Standouts
Goldman also highlighted IBM as a strong potential winner. The company has already replaced 200 human resources roles with AI agents, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal. The firm has leaned heavily into AI consulting and enterprise AI tools, positioning it as a seasoned operator in corporate automation.
Zillow, meanwhile, has had a tougher year, with the stock down more than 7 percent. But Goldman sees upside as the real estate platform leans deeper into digital tools. The company recently launched its Zillow Pro suite, a package of AI powered products designed to help real estate agents streamline listing creation, customer outreach, and transaction management. Zillow’s large data sets and its role as a marketplace platform make it a natural candidate for AI driven margin expansion.
What This Means for Investors
This Goldman Sachs research is a reminder that the AI trade is no longer just about the companies building chips or running massive data centers. The next wave of winners could come from firms using AI to run leaner, faster, and more profitably.
For investors, this shift offers several implications:
1. AI productivity gains may be underpriced.
Many of these companies trade at valuations that do not yet reflect the potential for AI driven earnings growth.
2. Financials could be early leaders.
With some of the highest labor costs in the market, banks have the most to gain from broad adoption of AI agents, automation, and digital service tools.
3. Traditional companies with large workforces may outperform expectations.
Retail, real estate services, logistics, business services, and insurance are all candidates for similar screens.
4. The AI trade is broadening.
Investors no longer have to chase mega cap tech stocks to get exposure to AI driven growth.
About Author
