Google’s has Big Earnings Amid Accelerating Ad Spend and Antitrust Challenges. Still a Buy. Why?

Google Logo as a Rich Guy

As Google’s parent company, Alphabet Inc., navigates through a turbulent sea of antitrust litigations led by the U.S. Justice Department, its financial buoyancy remains unscathed. The upcoming release of its third-quarter results is highly anticipated to reflect a continuation of this trend.

Anticipated Earnings Amid Regulatory Storm

Despite being embroiled in legal battles, Alphabet’s profitability machinery is firing on all cylinders. Analysts foresee a favorable third-quarter earnings report due on Tuesday, further reinforcing Google’s resilient financial health. According to Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White, Alphabet is strategically placed to harness the digital advertising wave, spearhead innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), and exploit the expanding cloud market, all while maintaining a streamlined cost framework. Nevertheless, the looming regulatory challenges cast a long shadow, hinting at potentially tumultuous days ahead.

Surge in Ad Spending Drives Momentum

A noteworthy uptick of about 13% in advertising expenditure on Google search was observed in the third quarter YoY, propelled by competitive pricing and YouTube’s robust performance. This assessment by Cowen analyst John Blackledge, based on a comprehensive survey involving a significant ad agency, echoes a broader market sentiment which recently elevated Google’s price target from $150 to $160. Amid a backdrop of federal scrutiny, Google’s search-engine business continues to generate billions in ad revenue, defying the prevailing market downturn.

AI Integration: A Catalyst for Growth

Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion emphasizes Alphabet’s promising trajectory in AI, which is expected to unlock novel revenue streams, especially in the realm of cloud services. The in-progress testing of Google’s Duet AI assistant is a testament to these efforts. Champion anticipates that Alphabet’s shares will continue to flourish despite the ongoing DOJ trial, fueled by the infusion of generative AI into core search functionalities and other Google products.

Share Performance and Future Projections

Alphabet’s share values witnessed their zenith in over a year on October 11, marking $140.55, riding the wave of an October rally. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill articulates a bullish outlook for Alphabet, citing a gradual acceleration in ad revenue growth, optimizing cloud revenue, and AI-driven advancements as pivotal factors propelling Alphabet’s shares even after a stellar 58% YTD gain.

What We Think

Alphabet Inc.’s forthcoming third-quarter earnings are expected to underscore the tech giant’s formidable financial posture amid the ongoing antitrust skirmish. The escalating ad spending coupled with innovative strides in AI and cloud services delineates a promising roadmap for Alphabet, even as it grapples with regulatory headwinds.

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