As economic concerns rise amid President Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy trade agenda, whispers of a looming recession have grown louder. Yet for seasoned investors like Mitchell Green, founder and managing partner of Lead Edge Capital, these are not warning signs — they’re green lights.
“Bring it on,” Green told CNBC’s Access Middle East. His optimism isn’t rooted in blind hope but in a time-tested truth: recessions, while painful for many, can present outsized opportunities for those with capital, courage, and a contrarian mindset.
Why Uncertainty Breeds Opportunity
For investors, the biggest enemy isn’t inflation or interest rates — it’s uncertainty. Volatile markets make it difficult to plan, allocate, or even stay in the game. But for private equity veterans like Green, that same chaos can create a buyer’s market.
Green’s firm, Lead Edge Capital, manages $5 billion in assets and focuses on growth equity investments in the software, internet, and tech space. Their portfolio includes names like Spotify, Bumble, Uber, and China-based giants like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Ant Group.
But it’s not just the big names that catch Green’s attention. It’s the environment surrounding them. In times of recession, institutional limited partners (LPs) — such as pension funds and endowments — often face liquidity crunches. These forced sellers are looking to offload their stakes at significant discounts. And that’s where investors like Green strike.
“We’ll buy old LPs out of funds, but we embrace a recession. We’re not afraid of a recession. It’s the best time to invest,” Green said.
Understanding the Secondary Market Advantage
Lead Edge Capital specializes in what’s known as the secondary market for venture capital — a lesser-known but increasingly important arena. Unlike the primary market, where companies raise fresh capital by issuing new shares, the secondary market allows existing investors to sell their stakes in private companies to others.
During downturns, these stakes are often sold at steep discounts, offering savvy buyers an opportunity to invest in late-stage private companies that might otherwise be overvalued in a bullish environment. It’s a time-tested tactic that echoes Warren Buffett’s classic advice: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
“Fortunes are made during recessions, if you have capital,” Green said. “In the secondary world… you want to be a buyer when others are forced sellers. That is when you can make an absolute ton of money.”
The IPO Market Freeze and Liquidity Crisis
In normal market conditions, private equity firms and their LPs can expect eventual returns from IPOs or acquisition exits. But when markets turn sour, IPOs slow down or dry up completely. That’s what’s happening now, Green points out.
“LPs and GPs were already looking for liquidity. Now you have an IPO market that’s probably going to slow down,” he said. “A lot of LPs… were already over-allocated to a lot of private equity, and this is only going to extend it.”
The result? An oversupply of sellers with few buyers willing to take risk — except for firms like Lead Edge. These moments, Green argues, are when the next great fortunes are made.
A Bullish Stance on China Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Green’s contrarian approach doesn’t stop at recession investing. While many Western investors shy away from China due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory crackdowns — especially with tariffs imposed by the Trump administration — Green sees long-term opportunity.
“China is going to be a much bigger economy in 20 years than it is today,” he said, pointing to the nation’s growth potential despite current headwinds.
One of Lead Edge’s most significant bets is on ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok. With Washington threatening to ban TikTok in the U.S., many investors might shy away. But not Green.
“The U.S. business of TikTok… could go to zero, and it does not change one iota of our investment thesis,” he said. “We think we can make a great return just with the Chinese and the rest of the world’s business.”
What This Means for Everyday Investors
Green’s strategy may sound exclusive — after all, most retail investors don’t have access to secondary private equity deals. But the principles behind his approach are widely applicable.
1. Recessions Are Entry Points, Not Exit Signs
Don’t fear a downturn — prepare for it. During recessions, quality assets often go on sale. Investors with a watchlist of high-conviction stocks or ETFs can benefit greatly by deploying capital when fear dominates the market.
2. Follow the Smart Money
Watch what private equity firms and hedge funds are doing, not just what they’re saying. If large institutional players are scooping up assets, it’s often a signal that valuations have become attractive.
3. Explore Publicly Traded PE and VC Proxies
If you can’t access private deals, consider publicly traded companies with exposure to private equity or venture capital. Firms like Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR), and Apollo Global Management (APO) give retail investors a way to tap into similar strategies.
4. Stay Global, But Be Selective
Green’s confidence in China isn’t blind faith — it’s based on long-term fundamentals. Investors should consider global diversification, especially in emerging markets, but stay mindful of geopolitical risk.
5. Cash Is Optionality
Having dry powder — cash or equivalents — during a recession is critical. It gives you optionality to act when prices are low and others are retreating.
Key Takeaway: Fortune Favors the Prepared
While many investors panic at the mere mention of a recession, Mitchell Green offers a masterclass in seeing past the noise. A down market, in his view, is not a reason to retreat — it’s an invitation to get strategic, get selective, and get to work.
Whether you’re a retail investor or managing a fund, the lesson is the same: volatility breeds opportunity. If you stay disciplined and think long-term, you might just find your next big winner in the middle of a downturn.
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