Boeing’s comeback story has entered a new phase — and this time, investors are starting to believe it might stick. After years of crisis, the aerospace giant is showing early signs of a turnaround that could push its stock more than 25% higher, provided the company executes on its new leadership’s strategy.
From Sky-High Ambitions to Grounded Reality
Once considered one of America’s most reliable cash-flow machines, Boeing lost its way following a series of devastating missteps. The 737 MAX disasters in 2018 and 2019 exposed deep flaws in its engineering culture. The company’s struggles worsened after a mid-air door plug blowout in January 2024 — a stark reminder of how far Boeing had drifted from its engineering roots.
By the end of 2024, Boeing had delivered only 265 737-series jets, missing its 2024 production goals by more than half. Its stock, still down roughly 55% from its 2019 all-time high of $446, became a symbol of corporate dysfunction.
But a new chapter began in mid-2024 when Kelly Ortberg took the helm.
A New CEO, a New Focus
Since Ortberg’s arrival in July 2024, Boeing’s leadership has shifted decisively toward rebuilding credibility with regulators, investors, and workers. The former Rockwell Collins CEO is an engineer by trade — a stark contrast to the finance-driven executives who dominated Boeing’s upper ranks for decades.
Ortberg has restructured management, improved supplier relations, and made a symbolic but powerful move — relocating senior leadership back to Seattle, closer to the company’s engineers and factory floors.
The market has noticed. Boeing shares have gained about 7% since Ortberg’s appointment, and analysts are turning cautiously optimistic. “I love these stories,” said Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors. “Companies with good bones that have been so poorly run then get a good CEO.”
How Boeing Lost Its Bearings
The seeds of Boeing’s decline were sown decades ago. The 1997 merger with McDonnell Douglas shifted Boeing’s DNA from engineering excellence to financial engineering. Headquarters moved from Seattle to Chicago in 2001, symbolically distancing management from its production base. Under CEO Jim McNerney, the company emphasized cost-cutting and share buybacks over product innovation — even as employees endured strikes and morale plunged.
Between 2011 and 2019, Boeing spent roughly $49 billion on R&D and capital projects, compared to Airbus’s $52 billion, but returned $59 billion to shareholders. The imbalance left Boeing ill-equipped to handle technical crises and forced it to raise emergency capital in 2024 by selling stock at just $143 per share.
Then came the 737 MAX debacle — a tragedy that killed 346 people and led to a nearly two-year global grounding. CEO Dennis Muilenburg was ousted, replaced by Dave Calhoun, who managed to recertify the MAX but failed to fully restore confidence. His tenure ended soon after the 2024 door plug incident.
As Yale School of Management lecturer Gautam Mukunda bluntly put it: “At this point, everyone knows the story, right? [Boeing] has been brutally mismanaged for basically my entire adult life.”
Ortberg’s Early Moves: Fixing What’s Broken
Ortberg is tackling Boeing’s biggest flaws head-on. He has:
- Reorganized leadership and brought in proven operators like Jay Malave, a respected former Lockheed Martin executive, as CFO.
- Raised capital through stock offerings and convertible debt to strengthen the balance sheet.
- Sold off non-core units, including a $10-billion sale of Digital Aviation Solutions to Thoma Bravo.
- Scrapped experimental projects like the X-66 truss-wing demonstrator to focus on near-term commercial programs.
These moves have been met with cautious approval from Wall Street. “We have seen a far less arrogant tone,” said Rob Stallard of Vertical Research Partners. “Customers and suppliers now comment that they have much more faith in Boeing actually delivering on its projections.”
Signs of Progress, but Miles to Go
Boeing is still in the red — and 2025 is projected to mark its seventh straight year of losses, the longest streak for any S&P 500 company. Yet some metrics are finally improving.
Demand for aircraft remains robust. Boeing holds over 6,600 unfilled orders, representing years of production backlog. Deliveries are expected to climb from fewer than 350 jets in 2024 to around 600 in 2025. The FAA has raised the 737 MAX production cap from 38 to 42 per month, with Boeing aiming for 50 by 2027.
If achieved, analysts estimate Boeing could generate $11 billion in free cash flow by 2028.
“It’s actually a pretty simple story at this point,” said BofA Securities analyst Ron Epstein. “Can it deliver more airplanes? And if they can deliver more airplanes, they generate more cash.”
Financial Reality Check
The numbers tell a mixed story. Boeing lost $7.14 per share in Q3 2025, hit by a $4.9 billion charge tied to the delayed 777X program. Yet revenue climbed 31% year-over-year to $23.3 billion, marking three straight quarters of sales growth and the first positive free-cash-flow quarter since 2023.
Still, investors remain wary — and for good reason. Boeing has missed Wall Street estimates roughly 70% of the time since 2019, far more than peers like Apple or GE Aerospace. That credibility gap will take years to repair.
What Could Lift the Stock
Analysts see room for upside. Both BofA’s Epstein and Vertical’s Stallard peg Boeing’s fair value around $270 a share, up roughly 35% from current levels. A full turnaround could push the stock as high as $300, comparable to Airbus’s valuation multiples.
Key catalysts include:
- Certification of new models like the 777X and 737 MAX 7 and 10 by 2026-2027.
- Improving defense performance, led by new executive Stephen Parker.
- Renewed investor confidence as Ortberg continues to stabilize production and culture.
A Culture Shift in Progress
Perhaps the most meaningful change is cultural. Ortberg’s leadership style contrasts sharply with his predecessors’. Analysts describe him as collaborative, technically competent, and humble. He’s restoring trust internally and externally, a prerequisite for sustainable growth.
Labor relations are also improving. The seven-week strike that ended in late 2024 resulted in significant wage gains and a promise that Boeing’s next narrow-body aircraft would be built in Washington state — a key concession to its unionized workforce.
Why Investors Should Care
For investors, Boeing represents both risk and opportunity. The company’s market dominance in commercial aviation gives it an inherent moat, but execution missteps can quickly erase progress. If Ortberg’s leadership translates into consistent production, higher margins, and on-time deliveries, Boeing could rejoin the top tier of American industrial stocks.
If not, it risks being remembered as a cautionary tale about corporate hubris.
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