Costco has a remarkable November track record, with shares avoiding a decline during the month for 17 consecutive years. Now, improving technical indicators and strong sales growth suggest the warehouse retailer could be preparing for another year-end rally.
November Has Been Costco’s Best Month for Years
For investors looking for opportunities heading into the holiday shopping season, Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has an unusually strong historical pattern worth watching.
According to Fairlead Strategies founder and technical analyst Katie Stockton, November has been Costco’s strongest month over both the past 10 and 25 years. The stock has gained more than 7% in five of the past six Novembers and has not recorded a November decline since 2008.
That winning streak is especially notable because Costco shares have spent much of the past two years trading within a relatively narrow range. Despite the company’s continued growth, the stock has struggled to establish a sustained breakout.
Stockton believes that could be changing. Her latest technical analysis points to strengthening momentum, improving longer-term indicators, and a potentially favorable setup as November approaches.
The timing is particularly interesting because Costco’s underlying business continues to report strong sales growth.
Costco’s Financial Performance Supports the Bullish Case
Costco reported fiscal 2026 net sales of $297.2 billion, an increase of 10.1% from the previous year. Net income rose approximately 13.9% to $9.23 billion, demonstrating the company’s ability to grow profitability alongside its expanding business.
The momentum continued into September, when Costco reported net sales of $30.02 billion, up 13% from a year earlier. Comparable sales increased 11.4%, or 7.6% after adjusting for gasoline prices and foreign exchange.
Digitally enabled sales also grew 19% during September, providing another source of growth as Costco expands beyond traditional warehouse shopping.
These results indicate that Costco continues to attract consumer spending even as households face pressure from inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and economic uncertainty.
The company’s membership-based business model is an important advantage. Annual membership fees generate recurring revenue, while Costco’s emphasis on competitive prices helps reinforce customer loyalty and shopping frequency.
For investors, that combination can make Costco attractive during periods when consumers become more selective about where they spend their money.
Technical Indicators Point Toward a Potential Breakout
Stockton’s analysis identifies several encouraging developments in Costco’s stock chart.
The first is improving momentum. Costco recently moved above its 200-day moving average, a widely followed technical indicator used to assess longer-term price trends. Stockton identified that average as an initial support level following the breakout.
Meanwhile, the weekly moving average convergence divergence indicator, commonly called MACD, has moved into positive territory. This suggests intermediate-term momentum has strengthened after a prolonged period of sideways trading.
Longer-term technical indicators also remain constructive. Stockton noted that Costco’s monthly momentum readings have considerable room to rise before reaching traditionally overbought conditions.
That distinction matters because many growth-oriented stocks have already experienced substantial rallies, leaving investors concerned about stretched valuations and fading momentum.
Costco appears to have a different technical profile, with the possibility of renewed buying interest following an extended consolidation.
The key resistance level identified by Stockton is approximately $1,078, near the stock’s 2025 high. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the case for a larger breakout.
However, the stock closed October 28 at $982.73, meaning it still had substantial ground to recover before reaching that target area. YCharts+1
The Opportunity Comes With a Significant Valuation Risk
While Costco’s sales growth and historical November performance are encouraging, investors should be cautious about assuming another rally is inevitable.
Costco trades at a substantial premium to many traditional retailers. At approximately $983 per share, the stock was valued at roughly 47 times trailing earnings, based on fiscal 2026 results.
That premium reflects investor confidence in Costco’s business model, customer loyalty, and long-term growth prospects. It also creates risk if sales growth slows or the broader market becomes less willing to pay elevated valuations.
Even a well-run company can experience a stock price correction when expectations become too optimistic.
Costco’s earnings growth has been impressive, but investors should distinguish between strong company performance and the price they are paying for that performance.
There is also an important limitation to the November winning streak. Seasonal patterns describe historical behavior and cannot guarantee future performance. Changes in interest rates, consumer spending, or market sentiment could overwhelm the historical tendency.
A prolonged winning streak also makes it important to consider the possibility that investors are already positioning for the anticipated move.
Three Signals Costco Investors Should Watch
Rather than relying entirely on November seasonality, investors can use three indicators to evaluate whether a sustained rally is developing.
1. A Return Above $1,000
Costco has recently traded around the psychologically important $1,000 level. A sustained recovery above that price, followed by additional strength, would be an encouraging early indication that buyers are returning.
2. Strong October Sales Results
Costco is scheduled to release October sales figures on November 4. Investors should pay particular attention to comparable sales excluding gasoline and foreign exchange, which provide a clearer view of the company’s underlying retail performance.
September’s adjusted comparable-sales growth of 7.6% establishes a useful recent benchmark. Continued healthy growth would support the argument that Costco is entering the holiday shopping season with solid operating momentum.
3. Progress Toward $1,078
Stockton identified resistance near $1,078 as the major technical hurdle. A sustained breakout above that area could attract additional attention from momentum-oriented investors.
However, failure to maintain the recent technical improvement would weaken the near-term bullish case, particularly if the stock falls back below its 200-day moving average.
Could Costco Benefit From a More Cautious Consumer?
One overlooked aspect of Costco’s investment story is that economic uncertainty can create opportunities for value-oriented retailers.
As households become more budget-conscious, purchasing groceries, household essentials, and other products in bulk can become increasingly attractive. Costco’s ability to offer competitive pricing may encourage existing members to consolidate more of their spending at its warehouses.
That creates an interesting possibility for investors. Even if the overall retail environment becomes more challenging, Costco could continue gaining a larger share of household spending.
However, there are limits to that advantage. Slower discretionary spending could pressure sales of electronics, appliances, jewelry, and other higher-priced merchandise. Costco would still need to maintain strong shopping traffic and membership loyalty to offset weakness in those categories.
The company’s upcoming sales reports should help determine which of these forces is having the greater impact.
Important Dates Ahead for Costco Stock
Investors have several upcoming opportunities to evaluate whether Costco’s operating performance supports the improving technical picture.
- November 4: October sales results, providing an early indication of consumer demand heading into the holiday season.
- December 2: November sales results, offering evidence of whether the company’s historically strong month also delivered healthy business growth.
- December 10: Fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings, when investors will get a broader picture of profitability, margins, and membership trends.
These reports will be particularly important because the stock’s elevated valuation leaves relatively little room for disappointing results.
What Investors Should Take Away
Costco enters November with an unusually compelling combination of historical seasonality, improving technical momentum, and healthy underlying sales growth.
The company’s impressive November winning streak deserves attention, particularly after an extended period of stock price consolidation. However, investors should treat that record as one supporting factor rather than a reliable forecast.
The more meaningful question is whether Costco can translate its strong business performance into renewed stock price momentum.
A sustained recovery above $1,000, continued strength in comparable sales, and progress toward the $1,078 resistance level would provide increasingly convincing evidence that a larger rally is underway.
For investors watching high-quality retail stocks, Costco could be one of the more interesting names to monitor as the holiday shopping season begins.
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