Iran-backed Houthi forces have reportedly captured Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and the strategic island of Perim, giving the group a stronger position near one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. The advance threatens another critical oil route as crude prices hover around $100 a barrel.
Houthis Capture Strategic Island
Houthi forces captured Perim, also known as Mayun, on Friday after advancing through the historic port of Mocha and the coastal town of Dhubab, according to multiple reports.
Forces aligned with Yemen’s Saudi-backed government appear to have withdrawn from Perim, completing a rapid Houthi push down Yemen’s western coastline toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The island sits in the middle of the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Ships traveling between Europe and Asia must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb before continuing toward the Suez Canal.
Holding Perim does not give the Houthis complete control over the strait because the western shoreline remains outside Yemen. It does, however, give the group a much stronger ability to monitor, threaten and potentially attack commercial vessels passing through the waterway.
Another Oil Chokepoint Is Now at Risk
The Houthi advance comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is already under pressure from the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.
Hormuz normally handles roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Saudi Arabia and other regional exporters have increasingly depended on the Red Sea as an alternative route when shipments through Hormuz become too dangerous.
The Houthis now hold territory beside the southern entrance to that alternative route.
Any sustained threat to the Bab el-Mandeb could force more tankers and cargo ships to sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That journey takes longer, consumes more fuel and reduces the number of vessels available at any given time.
The market has seen this pattern before. After Houthi attacks on commercial ships intensified in late 2023, oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb fell from an average of 8.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to approximately 4 million barrels per day during the first eight months of 2024.
The latest territorial gains could make the threat more difficult to contain.
Saudi Arabia Is Running Out of Safe Alternatives
Saudi Arabia faces pressure on several fronts. The kingdom has traditionally used its East-West pipeline to move oil from fields near the Persian Gulf to export terminals on the Red Sea, allowing some shipments to bypass Hormuz.
Satellite imagery on Friday reportedly showed a 60-mile smoke plume near the route of that pipeline. Fire-detection systems recorded high temperatures at several locations associated with the underground infrastructure, although the cause remains unclear.
Neither Saudi officials nor the Houthis had commented on the reported incident.
The Houthis have also attacked Saudi energy facilities directly. Their latest territorial gains improve their access to the kingdom’s Red Sea shipping routes while Iran continues applying pressure near Hormuz.
Full Control of the Strait Is Not Required
The Houthis do not control both sides of the Bab el-Mandeb, and U.S. and allied naval forces remain capable of operating in the region. A complete closure of the waterway would therefore be difficult to maintain.
The greater danger is a prolonged period of uncertainty in which ships can technically pass through the strait but increasingly choose to stay away.
That scenario would create persistent shipping delays, higher insurance premiums and tighter vessel capacity without producing a single moment that markets could identify as the beginning of a blockade.
It could also give Iran additional negotiating leverage. Tehran and its allies would hold the ability to pressure shipping near both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, the two most important maritime exits surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
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