America’s love affair with snacks is changing. As legacy brands see declining volumes, a new generation of wellness-oriented, protein-packed snacks is taking over. Investors should take note, this isn’t just a dietary trend. It’s a reshaping of an entire consumer category.
The Changing Snack Market
U.S. snack consumption is no longer the same impulse-driven juggernaut it was during the pandemic. Sales of once-popular items like cookies, brownies, and doughnuts are shrinking, caught between inflation, evolving health consciousness, and the rise of weight-loss drugs like GLP-1s. For investors, this pivot isn’t just a warning sign—it’s an opportunity to ride the next wave of consumer preference.
While big food players are feeling the heat, those adapting with high-protein, functional, and clean-label snack offerings are managing to hold their ground—or even grow. Retail giants like Walmart and Kroger, as well as manufacturers like Mondelez, Simply Good Foods, and Hershey, are reshaping portfolios to meet new consumer demands—and those moves could determine who leads the next snacking boom.
What the Data Tells Us About the Snack Revolution
The Snack Market by the Numbers
| Metric | Change (2019–2024) |
|---|---|
| Avg. price of salty snacks | +31% |
| Avg. price of sweet snacks | +40% |
| U.S. inflation | +25% |
| Unit sales: Doughnuts | -10% |
| Unit sales: Cakes | -19% |
| Unit sales: Cookies | -13% |
| Unit sales: Cupcakes/Brownies | -30%+ |
| Potato chip sales volume | -7% (Feb); -1.5% (July YoY) |
Source: NielsenIQ
The data paints a stark picture. Traditional snack volumes are slipping, and even category leaders like PepsiCo have seen a 2% organic revenue dip in North American snack sales two quarters in a row. What’s behind the decline?
- Sticker shock. Snack inflation has outpaced broader consumer price increases.
- Healthier habits. Consumers are reading labels and reaching for functional ingredients.
- GLP-1 drugs. Appetite suppressants are reducing snack frequency across key demographics.
This shift isn’t a death knell for snacking—it’s a fork in the road. And those who align with new trends are gaining ground.
The Rise of Protein and Purpose in Snacking
People aren’t just snacking less—they’re snacking smarter. Consumers want treats that offer real nutritional value. Think protein bars, collagen-infused bites, fiber-rich snacks, and clean-label items with minimal ingredients.
“Consumers are getting wiser; they are seeking products with higher food value,” says Evercore ISI analyst David Palmer.
This growing awareness has turned snacking into a battleground for innovation and affordability. Many companies are introducing smaller portion sizes with functional ingredients, better nutritional profiles, and reasonable price points to win back budget-conscious shoppers.
Walmart is an early winner here. Its Bettergoods brand, launched in April 2024, features globally inspired, affordable snacks like Thai-style pineapple rice crackers ($3) and pistachio nut butter ($6). The line has already racked up nearly $500 million in sales, according to CFO John David Rainey.
Kroger has also leaned into the shift, announcing plans to launch 80 new high-protein items under its Simple Truth brand. Private labels like these aren’t just cheap alternatives anymore—they’re closing the quality gap by mimicking premium products and clean-label claims.
Between 2021 and 2024:
- Store brand snack sales rose 2.1%
- National brand sales fell 6.8%
(Source: Private Label Manufacturers Association)
Winners and Losers: Which Stocks Stand Out?
Mondelez (MDLZ)
With 70% of revenue coming from outside North America, Mondelez is weathering the domestic slowdown by leaning into global growth. The company expects 5% organic net revenue growth in 2025. Its stock is up 12% YTD, trading at a 22x forward earnings multiple—a premium to its peers but arguably justified by its international exposure.
Campbell Soup (CPB)
Campbell has had a rough year, down 22%, despite strong performance in its meals and beverage division. The acquisition of Sovos Brands (maker of Rao’s sauces) is a potential bright spot. If the stock is oversold, value investors may find an entry point before the market reassesses its hybrid snack-and-meal model.
Hershey (HSY)
Despite cocoa inflation and 10% tariffs, Hershey’s U.S. chocolate business still has pricing power. While volume fell, higher prices led to 2.3% sales growth in the first half of 2025. But profit margin compression is real—segment income dropped 15%. Yet investors seem unfazed, bidding the stock up 15% YTD to 33x forward earnings, a record high valuation.
Palmer believes Hershey should be more aggressive with pricing: “Mars took more aggressive pricing… and seemingly got away with it.”
Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
The company behind Quest and Atkins is perfectly positioned for the GLP-1 era. Quest’s low-carb, high-protein profile aligns with weight-conscious consumers, while Atkins has been under pressure. That imbalance offers a value opportunity: SMPL stock is down 19% YTD, trading at its lowest valuation since its 2017 IPO.
Its recent acquisition of Only What You Need, a plant-based protein shake brand, pushed quarterly net sales up 14% YoY.
What This Means for Investors
The great snack shake-up isn’t over. Traditional sweet and salty snack categories are under siege from all sides—pricing fatigue, diet awareness, and drug-driven behavior change. But the demand for functional indulgence—snacks that taste good and deliver health benefits—is creating a multi-billion-dollar reallocation of market share.
Key Investment Themes to Watch:
- Private label growth as store brands close the quality gap
- GLP-1 impact on food stocks reliant on habitual snacking
- Functional ingredient trends like protein, collagen, and fiber
- Tariff and input cost volatility, especially for chocolate manufacturers
- Global diversification as a hedge against U.S. snack market softness
Investors looking to play this trend should assess companies based on their product mix, pricing flexibility, private label exposure, and international footprint. The winners will be those who aren’t just feeding cravings—but nourishing new habits.
Snacking Isn’t Dying. It’s Evolving.
And in this transformation, the biggest returns won’t go to the brands that double down on nostalgia—but to the ones that reformulate for the future. Whether through protein-forward innovation, clean-label transparency, or affordability at scale, companies like Walmart, Kroger, and Simply Good Foods are building the next generation of snacks—and investors should take a bite.
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